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Friday, 10 January 2020 09:48

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK

A strong and messy system is moving through southern Ontario, including the Kawartha Conservation watershed. Light rain is expected to develop later today in our region and is forecast to become heavy early Saturday morning. The rain is expected to change into freezing rain when temperatures drop below the freezing mark on Saturday afternoon. Several hours of freezing rain may occur until temperatures climb to above freezing again on Sunday. Substantial amounts of precipitation, up to 60 mm, is predicted for the next 48 hours.

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK

DATE:                   January 10, 2020
TIME:                   9:30 am

Message sent on the basis of information received from:

•    Kawartha Conservation Flood Forecasting Network
•    Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry - Surface Water Monitoring Centre
•    Environment and Climate Change Canada

A strong and messy system is moving through southern Ontario, including the Kawartha Conservation watershed. Light rain is expected to develop later today in our region and is forecast to become heavy early Saturday morning. The rain is expected to change into freezing rain when temperatures drop below the freezing mark on Saturday afternoon. Several hours of freezing rain may occur until temperatures climb to above freezing again on Sunday. Substantial amounts of precipitation, up to 60 mm, is predicted for the next 48 hours.

A significant runoff is expected to develop under these circumstances. The existing snowpack will melt in the mild temperatures, adding to the runoff from the rain. Ground across the watershed is mostly frozen and has no capacity to absorb the precipitation or runoff.

Under current watershed conditions and expected precipitation, water levels and velocities in local rivers and creeks will increase. No flooding problems are anticipated at this moment, however water accumulation will occur in low-lying areas, road ditches, and areas with poor drainage. Rivers and streams may reach or overflow their banks in some locations. Smaller steams will react quickly, but larger watercourses will take longer to respond.

All local watercourses, ditches and lakes should be considered extremely dangerous. Riverbanks are slippery and unsafe; ice cover where it exists may become unstable and hazardous. Kawartha Conservation is warning all residents to stay away from rivers and lakes, as well as water structures such as bridges, culverts, and dams. Children should be warned of dangerous conditions and caregivers should maintain a close watch on children who are outside.

Kawartha Conservation will continue to monitor the developing situation closely, and will notify the public and municipalities within its watershed jurisdiction of any changes. If you are aware of, or have concerns about flooding, please contact Kawartha Conservation at 705.328.2271 or 705.344.0155 after hours.

This Watershed Conditions Statement-Flood Outlook will be in effect until Monday, January 13th, 2020.

Iryna Shulyarenko                                                                         Emma Collyer
Hydrologist                                                                                   Director, Integrated Watershed Management

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is an early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.

Last modified on Friday, 10 January 2020 09:52