Inside the Flood Forecasting and Warning System at Kawartha Conservation

When a storm rolls in, most people watch the rain from their windows or check the weather forecast to see what’s coming. But at Kawartha Conservation, we see something different, a changing landscape, rising water levels, and the possibility of a community at risk.

Flooding is more than just high water. It’s the anxious call from a farmer worried about their fields. It’s the municipality scrambling to protect roads and bridges. It’s the family wondering if their basement will stay dry. And it’s why our team works tirelessly, behind the scenes, to monitor and predict flood risks before they happen.

Every day, our team is analyzing data, lots of it. From real-time monitoring stations scattered across the Kawartha watershed to measuring water-equivalent in snowpack levels, river flows, and precipitation, we piece together the story of our watershed.

“Our monitoring system is always running, 24/7, to track environmental conditions and identify potential threats,” explained Nathan Rajevski, Watershed Resources Technician. “We rely on a combination of historical data, precipitation forecasts, hydrological models, and on-the-ground observations to develop an accurate picture of what is happening across our watershed and how it may impact people.”

Flood forecasting isn’t just about predicting the impact of heavy rainfall, it’s also about monitoring how melting snowpack will influence water levels. As temperatures rise in the spring, the accumulated snow melts and flows into lakes, rivers, and streams, sometimes overwhelming the system. This runoff must be managed carefully, particularly in areas regulated by locks and dams, to prevent flooding in downstream communities.

“As we’ve seen in recent years, snowmelt can be just as much of a flood risk as a heavy rainfall event,” Rajevski adds. “What used to be a predictable spring thaw has become more variable, making our monitoring efforts even more important.”

The moment a potential flood risk is identified, Kawartha Conservation staff carefully assess the situation and take appropriate steps to communicate the risk. We issue alerts and communicate directly with municipalities, conservation authorities, and the public to ensure everyone is informed and prepared. In rapidly worsening situations, we also coordinate with emergency response teams to provide up-to-date information that helps guide decision-making.

“Every storm system is different, and every watershed reacts differently,” says Water Resources Engineer, Yan Shao. “Our role is to analyze multiple data sources and provide timely, accurate information so that municipal partners and residents can make informed decisions about safety and preparedness.”

The unpredictability of weather due to climate change has further complicated flood forecasting. “There is no longer a typical flood season,” Shao explains. “What we used to expect in the spring from snowmelt, or in the fall from heavy rains, can now happen at any time of the year. That’s why continuous monitoring and forecasting are so critical.”

These flood messages, whether a Watershed Conditions Statement or a Flood Warning, help communities prepare, protect their homes, and stay safe.

Why This Work Matters

For many, flooding is just another seasonal risk. For us, it’s a responsibility. Our team doesn’t just analyze numbers; we see the faces behind them, the people, the homes, the businesses, the history of the communities we serve.

Flood forecasting and warning is about more than data points and statistics. It’s about protecting the people who call this watershed home.

As climate change brings more unpredictable weather patterns, our work has never been more critical. “We can’t rely on historical patterns alone anymore,” Shao notes. “We have to adapt our models and monitoring to reflect the new reality, that flooding can happen anytime, anywhere.”

We’re here, watching, analyzing, and preparing, because every drop of water matters, and so do the people who depend on it.

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