WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK - March 13, 2025

Message sent on the basis of information received from:

• Kawartha Conservation Flood Forecasting network
• Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry - Surface Water Monitoring Centre 
• Environment and Climate Change Canada

Based on information from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Ministry of Natural Resources – Surface Water Monitoring Centre, Kawartha Conservation is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for Thursday, March 13th, 2025, through to the end of day Monday, March 17th, 2025.

Kawartha Conservation advises that warmer weather is forecasted for the remainder of this week and into the weekend, with daytime air temperatures expected to rise between +7 to +15 degrees Celsius. In addition, rainfall events on Saturday and Sunday are expected to bring approximately 15-25mm of rain across our watershed.

As daytime air temperatures continue to rise, remaining snowpacks will continue to melt, resulting in the progression of increased runoff across our watershed. Water levels are still in the normal seasonal range, however as warmer conditions persist, these water levels will begin to rise with the onset of more snowmelt.

Under these conditions, all watercourses have the potential to be dangerous during prolonged snowmelt. While widespread flooding is not expected during this time, localized flooding and water pooling may occur in low-lying areas. Streams and rivers will experience higher than normal flow rates and should be considered dangerous during this time. Ice covered lakes may become unstable, resulting in the break-up of ice. Kawartha Conservation advises residents to stay away from all watercourses and any water structures such as bridges and culverts. Children and pets outside should be always supervised.

Municipalities are advised to monitor known flood-prone areas and be prepared to respond if necessary. Residents should contact their municipality if flooding occurs, as local municipalities are the first responders to flood emergencies.

Kawartha Conservation is closely monitoring the weather and watershed conditions during this time, while continuing to assess the potential flood risk moving into next week. We will remain in close communication with partner agencies, including the Trent-Severn Waterway, Ministry of Natural Resources – Surface Water Monitoring Centre, and neighboring Conservation Authorities during this time.

Northern tributaries, such as the Burnt River and Gull River are monitored by staff from the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR). Residents along these two rivers are requested to direct any questions concerning water levels to the Minden Area office at 705-286-1521 or refer to the messages issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR).

We will continue advising the watershed residents, local municipalities, and partner agencies about the situation using the Kawartha Conservation website, media outlets, and social media. To receive up to date Kawartha Conservation flood messages, please subscribe to our webpage.

If you are aware of or have concerns about flooding, please contact Kawartha Conservation at 705.328.2271 or 705.344.0155 after hours.

This Watershed Conditions Statement-Flood Outlook will be in effect from March 13th, 11:10 AM through to Monday, March 17 at 12:00pm, or until further notice.

Nathan Rajevski
Watershed Resource Technician

Nancy Aspden
Director, Integrated Watershed Management

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is an early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.