Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook - March 14

Kawartha Conservation advises that warmer weather is forecast to arrive in southern Ontario, including the Kawartha Conservation watershed, starting tomorrow, March 15^th. The air temperature is expected to stay above freezing for the next 5 days, while the daytime temperature will reach as high as 12°C and 15°C on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. There is also a small chance of light rain, 1-3 mm on Thursday, March 17^th.

As per our observations this morning, the local rivers and streams have returned to their low water levels, following the rise that was observed very early last week. However considerable snowpack, up to 30 cm, still exists around the watershed, and grounds are frozen. In addition, lots of low-lying areas, ditches, and ponds are already filled with frozen water from the warm-up last week.

Under these weather conditions, the snowpack will start melting, producing substantial runoff. As the current watershed capacity to absorb the expected snowmelt is limited, the water levels and flows in local rivers will increase over the next 3 days. Rivers are expected to reach or exceed their banks; water is likely to accumulate in low-lying areas, areas with poor drainage, road ditches. Small watercourses will be quick to respond, while larger rivers will take longer to start rising. 

The ice cover, where it still exists, will weaken and break under the mild temperatures. Moving ice, coupled with debris, will increase the potential for blockage and ice jams, especially in the vicinity of culverts and bridges.

Local erosion damage to road allowances and riverbanks can be expected.

In these circumstances, all local rivers, streams, and lakes should be considered extremely dangerous. Riverbanks will be slippery and unsafe; any remaining ice cover is unstable and hazardous. Kawartha Conservation is warning all residents to stay away from water bodies, as well as water structures such as bridges, culverts, and dams. Children should be warned of dangerous conditions and caregivers should maintain a close watch on children who are outside.

Municipalities are advised to monitor areas known for flooding and be prepared to respond to high water situations as they occur. Residents are advised to contact their municipalities should a flood threat develop. Local municipalities are the first to respond to and assist with flood emergencies.

Kawartha Conservation will continue monitoring the weather and watershed conditions closely and assessing the flood hazard. We are in close communication with partner agencies such as the Trent Severn Waterway, Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry, and neighboring Conservation Authorities on this upcoming situation.

Northern tributaries, such as the Burnt and Gull Rivers are monitored by staff from the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry. Residents along these two rivers are requested to direct any questions concerning water levels to the MNDMNRF Minden Area office at 705.457.6434 or refer to the messages issued by the Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry at https://www.ontario.ca/law-and-safety/flood-forecasting-and-warning-program.

We will continue advising the watershed residents, local municipalities, and partner agencies about the situation using the Kawartha Conservation website, media outlets, and social media. You can subscribe to receive the Kawartha Conservation flood messages.  

If you are aware of or have concerns about flooding, please contact Kawartha Conservation at 705.328.2271x219 or 705.344.0155 after hours.

This Watershed Conditions Statement-Flood Outlook will be in effect or updated before Friday, March 18^th, 2022.

Iryna Shulyarenko                                              Emma Collyer                                                                                  

Hydrologist                                                         Director, Integrated Watershed Management

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is an early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.