WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK - March 3, 2025

• Kawartha Conservation Flood Forecasting network
• Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry - Surface Water Monitoring Centre 
• Environment and Climate Change Canada

Based on information from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Ministry of Natural Resources – Surface Water Monitoring Centre, Kawartha Conservation is issuing a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook for Tuesday, March 4, 2025, through the end of day Friday, March 7th, 2025.

Kawartha Conservation advises that warmer weather is forecasted to arrive in southern Ontario, bringing moderate rainfall starting tomorrow, Tuesday March 4th, through to Thursday, March 6th. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach up to 8°C, while overnight temperatures will drop to around 0°C. Additionally, precipitation forecasts indicate that our watershed will receive 15-25 mm of rainfall over the next few days.

Water levels in local rivers, streams, and lakes are currently within the normal seasonal range. However, a significant snowpack remains, with an above-average snow water equivalent across the watershed. Under these conditions, rainfall will contribute to snowmelt, leading to substantial runoff. As a result, water levels and flows in rivers and streams are expected to rise. Smaller watercourses will respond quickly to the influx of water, whereas larger rivers will take longer to rise. Ice cover on lakes will weaken due to rising temperatures and rainfall, and moving water areas may experience blockages or ice jams, particularly near culverts and bridges.

While widespread flooding is not expected, localized flooding and water pooling may occur in low-lying areas. Kawartha Conservation strongly advises all residents to stay away from water bodies and structures such as bridges and culverts, as they may become slippery, unstable, and hazardous during this time. 

Riverbanks will experience strong currents and rising water levels, increasing the risk of erosion and sudden collapses. Conditions will be dangerous, and extra caution should be taken near all waterways. Children should be closely supervised at all times. 

Municipalities are advised to monitor known flood-prone areas and be prepared to respond if necessary. Residents should contact their municipality if flooding occurs, as local municipalities are the first responders to flood emergencies.

Kawartha Conservation is closely monitoring the weather and watershed conditions while assessing the potential flood risk. We remain in close communication with partner agencies, including the Trent-Severn Waterway, Ministry of Natural Resources – Surface Water Monitoring Centre, and neighboring Conservation Authorities during this event.

Northern tributaries, such as the Burnt River and Gull River are monitored by staff from the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR). Residents along these two rivers are requested to direct any questions concerning water levels to the Minden Area office at 705-286-1521 or refer to the messages issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) at https://www.lioapplications.lrc.gov.on.ca/webapps/swmc/flood-forecasting-and-warning-program/.

We will continue advising the watershed residents, local municipalities, and partner agencies about the situation using the Kawartha Conservation website, media outlets, and social media. You can subscribe to receive the Kawartha Conservation flood messages.  

If you are aware of or have concerns about flooding, please contact Kawartha Conservation at 705.328.2271 or 705.344.0155 after hours.

This Watershed Conditions Statement-Flood Outlook will be in effect until end of day Friday, March 7th or will be updated or removed as required. 

Nathan Rajevski
Watershed Resource Technician  

Nancy Aspden   
Director, Integrated Watershed Management

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is an early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.